Scottish retail sales outstripping UK since Brexit result

In the period July to September, official figures released by Scotland’s chief statistician show that the volume of sales rose by 2.1 per cent in Scotland compared to 1.8 per cent in Britain.

The value of sales – the amount of money spent – also increased by 2.1 per cent, slightly above the 2 per cent growth recorded in the UK.

The volume of retail sales in Scotland in the period July to September was 4.9 per cent higher than the same three months of 2015, although the UK as a whole achieved growth of 5.4 per cent over the year.

Martin Beck, senior economic advisor to the EY ITEM Club, said: “The GDP reading for Q3 demonstrated that the short-term impact of the vote to leave the EU has been very limited. However, the economy is not out of the woods yet and is likely to face a particularly challenging period in the early part of next year when higher inflation starts to bite on the consumer.

“Yet again all of the growth in Q3 came from the services sector, with both manufacturing and construction seeing output contract. Encouragingly, not only did the services sector display impressive resilience across Q3, but the monthly breakdown suggested solid momentum through the quarter, offering a decent platform for Q4. The high frequency data available thus far suggests that the consumer continued to do all of the heavy lifting, but we will have to wait another month before we the expenditure breakdown becomes available.”

“An upward revision to our forecast for 2017 GDP growth is now on the cards and today’s data may also prove to be the final nail in the coffin of a November rate cut.”

Euan Murray, of Barclays Corporate Banking in Scotland, said the third quarter of 2016 had been “a broadly positive period in the retail space with food and non-food categories both feeling the benefits”.

He added: “Consumer confidence appeared to grow despite the result of the EU referendum, which it was feared would dampen spending.”