Scottish GDP revised to a fall of 0.2% in 2019 Q2

GDP is now estimated to have fallen by 0.2% during the second quarter of 2019, according to statistics announced by the Scottish Government.

Scottish GDP revised to a fall of 0.2% in 2019 Q2

Economy secretary Derek Mackay

The fall in output has been revised up from the first estimate of 0.3%, published on 18 September, because of stronger growth in the services sector.

During the second quarter, the revised figures show that output in the construction sector fell by 2.4%, output in the production sector fell by 1.5%, and output in the services sector grew by 0.2%.



As reported in the first estimate, two sub-sectors of manufacturing (food and drink, pharmaceutical and related industries) account for most of the contraction this quarter. Output in these industries fell back after a strong performance in the first quarter.

When compared to the second quarter of 2018, growth over the year is now estimated at 0.6%. This has been revised down from the first estimate of 0.7% because growth in the previous two quarters has been revised down slightly.

The GDP Quarterly National Accounts publication includes the second estimate of growth for the April to June period. This uses data which has been released since the first estimate was published. The Quarterly National Accounts also includes a range of other statistics which are used for economic analysis, forecasting and modelling.

Commenting on the second estimate, economy secretary Derek Mackay, said: “We have been clear that any form of Brexit will damage our economy and the ongoing risk of a ‘no deal’ Brexit has clearly impacted our economy following a period of sustained economic growth.

“There is likely to be continued volatility as a result of the ongoing uncertainty relating to the timing and nature of Brexit and the response of companies and households to that.

“This uncertainty has been compounded further by the UK Government’s decision to delay its budget which seriously undermines the devolution settlement.

“Scotland did not vote for Brexit, but our economy is already paying the price for it. We will continue to stand firm against efforts to take us out of the EU against our will.”

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