Scottish city homes ‘becoming less affordable’ -BoS

The bank’s Affordable Cities Review found that the average Scottish city house price has risen by three per cent, from £176,009 in 2015 to £181,077 in 2016.

This has resulted in average affordability in Scotland’s cities worsening in the last 12 months from 5.25 to 5.36 times gross average annual earnings; the third successive annual decline in affordability.

On average, affordability in Scottish cities is now at its lowest level since 2009 but is still 12 per cent lower than the peak of 6.12 times earnings in 2008 at the height of the last housing market boom. The overall improvement in affordability across Scottish cities as a whole over the past eight years has been driven by a combination of an increase in the gross average annual earnings of £3,179 (+10 per cent) and an average house price decline of £6,293 (-3 per cent).

Edinburgh’s average house price is 6.12 times the gross average earnings in the city. With an average price of £220,099, houses in Edinburgh are more expensive compared with average earnings than in any other Scottish city.

Inverness (6.03), Aberdeen (5.72), Dundee (5.38) and Perth (5.24) make up the rest of the top five least affordable cities in Scotland.

Stirling is Scotland’s most affordable city and the second most affordable in the UK. The average property price of £165,658 is 4.11 times the gross average annual earnings.

Glasgow is the second most affordable city in Scotland and 10th in the UK, with an average house price of £159,580, which is 5.07 times the gross average annual earnings in the city.

Aberdeen, meanwhile, has recorded the biggest price rise of any Scottish city over the past decade and with a gain of 58 per cent, is the only Scottish city to appear in the top ten UK cities with highest house price growth (5th place). This is as a result of rising housing demand due to the strong performance of the oil and gas sector over most of the period. More recently, Aberdeen has seen a 22 per cent rise since 2011.

Nicola Noble, mortgages director at Bank of Scotland, said: “The rising house prices over the past three years have resulted in a deterioration in home affordability in Scotland’s cities. Although affordability is at the lowest level since 2009, it is still much lower than the height of the last housing market boom in 2008. Aberdeen has recorded Scotland’s highest house price growth over the past decade and more recently during the economic recovery, due to strong performance in the oil and gas sector.”

Industry body Homes for Scotland said increasing housing supply is the key to addressing home affordability.

Chief executive Nicola Barclay said: “The single most effective way to address concerns on housing need and affordability is to increase the supply of new homes of all tenures.

“Scotland’s growing population has a diverse set of housing needs and aspirations and there is an ever-present demand for good quality, sustainable homes. However, build levels remain some 40 per cent down on 2007 levels and, with tens of thousands also on waiting lists, a chronic undersupply of housing is having a severe impact on communities across the whole country.

“With the social and economic benefits of increasing supply clear, we are therefore calling on the next Scottish Government to manage a return to pre-recession build levels of at least 25,000 homes per year over the course of the next Parliamentary term.”