Scotland to outperform Northern Ireland but underperform on UK average - PwC

Scotland is set to outperform Northern Ireland and on par with Yorkshire and the North-east of England in 2018 but underperform compared to the UK average and other regions.

That’s the findings of the latest UK Economic Outlook report by PwC where scenario planning suggests that in 2017 Scotland will see 1.3 per cent real GVA growth and 1.1 per cent growth in 2018.

By comparison Wales will see 1.4 per cent growth this year and 1.2 per cent growth next year, Northern Ireland will see 1.2 per cent and 0.9 per cent growth and the UK average will be 1.6 per cent and 1.4 per cent.

Lindsay Gardiner, regional chair for PwC in Scotland, said: “The main reason for this slowdown in UK growth is projected to be a downturn in business investment driven by continued uncertainty surrounding the negotiations to leave the EU, and a squeeze on real household spending power from rising inflation, which could reach around 3%, and a softening of jobs growth. But somewhat stronger net exports, helped by the weaker pound, should dampen the scale of the fall in overall GDP growth this year.

“There are considerable uncertainties around any such projections at present, however, so businesses should stress test their business and investment plans against alternative economic scenarios and also review the potential wider implications of Brexit for all aspects of their business.

“The welcoming news is that the UK and Scotland look set to avoid recession over the coming years and that there will be growth but a number of factors such as oil price and completion of major infrastructure projects mean the growth is at the lower end of the scale for the UK regions.”