According to the figures, output remains 2.1% below the pre-pandemic level in February 2020.

Services sector output grew by 1.2% in June, with increases in seven of the 14 subsectors. The largest contribution to growth was from accommodation and food services for the third month in a row as activity continued to pick up after the easing of restrictions.

Output in the production sector increased by 0.5% overall, with growth in the electricity and gas supply subsector offset by falls in manufacturing and water and waste management.

Output in the construction sector is estimated to have fallen by 1.4%, broadly in line with the UK as a whole over the course of the latest quarter.

Using the experimental monthly statistics for Quarter 2 as a whole (April to June), GDP is provisionally estimated to have grown by 4.9%, reflecting a recovery in output after the fall of 1.8% during the lockdown restrictions in Quarter 1.

Kate Forbes, finance and economy secretary, said: “The predicted return of economic activity to pre-pandemic levels in the first half of 2022, almost two years of ahead of the SFC’s previous forecast, is a tribute to the innovation and adaptability displayed by businesses during the pandemic. Equally encouraging is the forecast that unemployment will peak at a much lower level than predicted in January.

“Increasing economic prosperity is one of my core objectives because it is the means by which we invest in infrastructure, deliver public services and support our citizens. Fair and sustained economic growth is essential and to that end I am today chairing the second meeting of the Advisory Council on Economic Transformation to discuss an ambitious 10 year national strategy that builds on our economic recovery, prioritises investment in the industries of the future and delivers new, good and green jobs.

“The SFC’s forecasts are also an indication that the Scottish Government’s policy of providing more than £3.7 billion additional COVID-19 support for businesses, while carefully easing restrictions and pushing ahead with the vaccination programme, has been the correct approach.”

She added: “We are delivering a social security service based on dignity, fairness and respect, rather than taking an austerity-led approach, as the UK Government has done, where all that matters is driving down the cost of supporting those who need it most. Social security is an investment in the people of Scotland and we are committed to making sure everyone can access the financial support they are entitled to as we continue to roll out devolved and new benefits, including disability benefits and the Scottish Child Payment to under 16s.

“The pandemic is not over. Challenges remain and sectors such as retail, tourism and hospitality still face obstacles on the road to recovery. But the SFC’s forecasts are a further sign that Scotland’s economy is emerging from the global pandemic in good shape as we work with business and trades unions to build a greener, fairer and more prosperous economy with wellbeing at its core.”

Kevin Brown, savings specialist at Scottish Friendly, commented: “The Scottish economy grew by 0.9% in June which is the fifth consecutive monthly increase. The rise means that GDP is gradually returning to pre-pandemic levels but for the time being still remains 2.1% lower.

“Over the whole of the second quarter, GDP grew by 4.9% as many parts of the economy reopened. Accommodation and food services have contributed most to the recent growth with businesses benefitting from the easing of restrictions and returning consumer confidence.

“Economic output in Scotland has largely been tracking the UK trend and it will be interesting to see if this continues in the coming months.

“The Scottish and UK governments will both be hoping for a sustainable recovery and for GDP to return to pre-pandemic levels. The huge increases in public spending during the pandemic mean that Scotland’s budget deficit has ballooned during the past year and the time will come when they need to recover some of that debt.

“How they will do this is not yet clear, but without a magic money tree it will likely be taxpayers who will have to conjure up extra cash.”