Online takes lion’s share of retail growth in month of Black Friday - SRC

When adjusted for deflation measured at 1.7 per cent by the BRC-Nielsen Shop Price Index (SPI), November sales increased by 0.2 per cent in real terms.

However, total Scottish retail sales decreased by 1.5 per cent compared with November 2015, when they had declined by 2.3 per cent.

Total Food sales were flat on November 2015, when they had decreased by 2.2 per cent.

This performance brings a further improvement to the 3-month average to 0.4 per cent, the best since January 2014, and the 12-month average to -0.8 per cent, the best since September 2014.

Total Non-Food sales declined 2.7 per cent compared to November 2015, when they had decreased by 2.3 per cent. This is a sharper decline than the 3-month and 12-month averages of -1.6 per cent and -1.8 per cent respectively, as a large proportion of non-Food sales was made online in November due to Black Friday.

Adjusted for the estimated effect of Online sales, total Non-Food sales increased by 1.1 per cent versus November 2015, when it had increased by 0.4 per cent. On a 3-month basis, the Online-adjusted Total Non-Food change was also 1.1 per cent, against 1.7 per cent for the UK. Using this measure on a like-for-like basis, Scotland was higher than the UK.

David Lonsdale, Director of the Scottish Retail Consortium, said: “Total retail sales in Scotland recorded a third successive month of real-terms positive growth, albeit at a pace less marked than in October. This promising news was underpinned by further improvements in grocery sales, which grew for a third month in a row; the best quarterly performance in almost three years.

“Non-food sales were heavily driven by online sales arising from Black Friday. Promotional and discounting activity by retailers around Cyber-weekend led to electricals and electronic goods performing particularly well last month, as did fragrances. These figures amply demonstrate the importance of the continuing shift towards online shopping, which accounted for over a quarter of all non-food retail sales in November.

“The two months leading up to Christmas account for a fifth of annual retail spending, and these figures provide grounds for optimism for the rest of this crucial trading period. However, the signs for 2017 are less positive. Both retailers and consumers will be concerned by potential headwinds which could see household disposable incomes squeezed; notably forecasts about rising inflation and planned increases in council tax. Consumer demand has often proven a reliable source of growth in the Scottish economy. It’s crucial the Scottish Government’s Budget reflects that and seeks to keep down the cost of living as well as the cost of doing business.”

Craig Cavin, head of retail in Scotland at KPMG, added: “Online is the new black in 2016 as cyber sales drove much of the growth while stealing the show on Black Friday. This may well herald the tone of years to come, with increasingly sophisticated online sales technology giving consumers a convenient, yet rich shopping experience, without the hassle of crowds.

“While overall retail sales for both food and non-food items are still down on the same period of last year, they have been growing cautiously throughout 2016. November saw online sales of non-food items push the overall non-food figure into the black, with 1.1 per cent growth year-on-year. In food we also saw positive signs of improvement: sales have actually been rising for the past three months and November increased the three-month average growth to the best since August 2013.

“Scots are prioritising furniture, DIY and home accessories over clothing and footwear. The ‘sunshine effect’ clearly played a role and Scottish shoppers found themselves inspired to do a spot of DIY or home improvement. Finally, health and beauty enjoyed a positive splurge in November, with shoppers choosing to hold off buying their favourite fragrances and luxury beauty products until the deals on Black Friday became available.”