Nationwide: UK annual house price growth increased to 11% in July

Nationwide: UK annual house price growth increased to 11% in July

UK house prices have continued to grow in July reaching annual growth of 11% in spite of lower affordability amid rising inflation and growing interest rates.

July’s figures have risen from 10.7% in June. Prices in July rose by 0.1% month-on-month, after taking account of seasonal effects – the twelfth successive monthly increase, which kept annual price growth in double digits for the ninth month in a row.

Commenting on the figuresMartin Beck, chief economic advisor to the EY ITEM Club, sees an increasing likelihood of a slowdown in price growth after “July’s near-stagnation”. He cited several reasons for a likely slowdown from inflation squeezing household incomes to rising mortgage rates “with the average rate on a new mortgage reaching 2.16% in June”, the highest since 2016.



Mr Beck said: “However, the housing market is experiencing some protection from current headwinds. With 80% of the stock of mortgages at fixed interest rates, rising mortgage rates will initially affect potential buyers rather than existing owners, and most mortgage-holders have time to adjust to more expensive mortgages.

“Recent rises in house prices will ensure many households on fixed-rate loans can meet their current loan-to-value requirements and re-fix their mortgages in time, rather than having to move on to more expensive variable rate loan.”

He added: “In the longer term, pressure on the housing market is increasing, and affordability is looking increasingly stretched. As a result, it’s hard to see how house price rises will avoid anything but a significant slowdown – but this would be a slowdown, not a contraction.

“Previous significant corrections in values have tended to coincide with steep rises in unemployment, increasing the number of ‘forced’ sales. But the backdrop this time looks far more benign.

“The unemployment rate is currently close to the lowest in half a century and demand for workers remains very strong, as evidenced by record-high vacancies. While the EY ITEM Club expects unemployment to rise, the imbalance between labour demand and supply means the increase should be modest.”

Robert Gardner, Nationwide’s chief economist, has made similar comments on the market. He said: “The housing market has retained a surprising degree of momentum given the mounting pressures on household budgets from high inflation, which has already driven consumer confidence to all-time lows. While there are tentative signs of a slowdown in activity, with a dip in the number of mortgage approvals for house purchases in June, this has yet to feed through to price growth.”

He added: “The Bank of England is widely expected to raise interest rates further, which will also exert a cooling impact on the market if this feeds through to mortgage rates.”

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