KPMG & SRC: Scottish retail sales hit by high inflation and damp August
Scottish retail sales for August displayed a sluggish performance, growing only 5.6% compared to the same period last year, falling short of the 3-month average increase of 7.5% and the 12-month average growth of 8.5%.
When adjusted for inflation, the figures reveal a year-on-year decline of 1.3%.
Like-for-like sales, a key industry measure, increased by just 5.2% compared to August 2022, also lagging behind the three-month average of 5.9% and the 12-month average of 6.2%. Inflation, which continues to run at above-average levels, is inflating sales figures, masking the real decline in volumes sold.
The food sector exhibited an 8.6% increase in sales compared to last August, yet this was still below the 3-month average of 11.5% and the 12-month average of 12.4%. Non-food sales grew by 3.1%, also below industry averages, while online sales-adjusted growth stood at 2.5%.
David Lonsdale, director of Scottish Retail Consortium, said: “The total value of Scottish retail sales sagged in real terms in August, declining for a second successive month.
“Both food and non-food saw a weaker performance, with the hoped for back-to-school bounce failing to materialise and the soggy weather coupled with households’ tighter husbandry of finances impairing sales of clothing and groceries.
Mr Lonsdale continued: “Fashion performed poorly, with shoppers shunning summer ranges due to the subpar weather and trading down on back-to-school apparel. Larger household appliances and white goods continued to suffer, as shoppers reined in spending on bigger ticket items. Grocery sales were at their lowest level since July 2022 pegged back in part due to a lack of barbeques.
“There were pockets of growth. Gaming consoles and smaller electrical items fared well, as did lower value home accessories and textiles. Health and beauty was the stand out performer with skincare, cosmetics and fragrances all improving as a bit more time was spent socialising and in workplaces and as people treated themselves.”
Paul Martin, KPMG UK partner and UK head of retail, added: “In August, retail sales improved by 5.6% year-on-year in Scotland, a small increase from the previous month but well below the three-month average of 7.5%. High inflation continued to hurt sales, causing a second consecutive monthly drop.
“The disappointing summer weather and other factors also contributed to slow sales, including weaker than normal back-to-school shopping. Food sales also slowed thanks to the less barbecue-friendly weather which became a mainstay of August.”
Mr Martin concluded: “As we bid farewell to summer, retailers are turning their attention towards the crucial Christmas shopping season. Although inflation has eased, it is at a slower pace than anticipated, so savvy shoppers are expected to commence their Christmas bargain hunting earlier this year.
“Maintaining consumer confidence as we approach the holiday season is of utmost importance, especially for those retailers who rely on a strong golden quarter to ensure their viability into 2024.”
Mr Lonsdale noted that policy makers should be cautious about further straining household finances, particularly with talk of elevated mortgage rates and potential tax hikes looming, which could impact consumer sentiment and spending.