Further rate cuts likely delayed as October brings 0.6% inflation uptick
The UK’s CPI inflation rose to 2.3% in October, exceeding economists’ predictions of 2.2% and putting pressure on the Bank of England to postpone further interest rate cuts.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) attributed the increase primarily to higher energy bills, offsetting lower oil prices and falls in the cost of theatre and live music tickets. This marks the fastest month-on-month price increase since October 2022.
Kevin Brown, savings specialist at Scottish Friendly, said: “A 0.6% spike for the inflation figures is extremely worrying as we enter the winter months.
“It is a clear shot across the bows of both rate setters and the government at a time when rates are being cut and businesses are warning of inflationary tax increases.”
The energy price cap increase in October and the anticipated rise in January are expected to contribute to sustained inflationary pressure. Additionally, retailers warn that recent tax increases and budget measures could further elevate prices and dampen consumer confidence.
Mr Brown added: “It will serve as cold comfort for households, too, as energy bills are set to rise again in the coming months. Looking at the drivers of this spike, it is broad-based with just two of the twelve CPI categories showing any signs of sustained price decreases.
“This suggests that pressure is building back up for price rises on a wide spectrum. Core inflation is also ticking back up, suggesting the fight we are facing with price rises is far from won.”
He concluded: “All eyes will now turn to a government, and rate setter response to these unwelcome figures. We will have to wait till 19 December for the next Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting for an indication on the base rate.
“In the meantime, households need to ensure they are prepared for unexpected costs as much as is possible under the circumstances. Having a rainy-day fund is key. Beyond that, any long-term saving should be placed where it has the best opportunity for long-term growth. At the moment with savings account rates falling, investing could be a better alternative.”