The energy trade body has released data, previously shown to the Treasury, modelling the impact of the government’s announced stronger Energy Profits Levy (EPL) on the UK economy.

The loss comes from an expected reduction in investment by oil and gas producers into UK projects, with capital investments over the period expected to fall to £2bn compared to around £14bn under the current regime.

OEUK has said the analysis shows the policy will undermine the UK offshore energy sector’s ability to support the Government’s overarching goal of driving economic growth.

The analysis shows that while the expected tax take from UK oil and gas producers would increase in the very short term, ultimately it would result in a £12bn loss in receipts compared to the current regime. This is due to a rapid decline in production due to under investment over this decade. The analysis confirms the impact would be felt widely across the economy.

The data has been published to help inform decision making ahead of the Chancellor’s Autumn Statement in October.

Continued uncertainty around the timeframe of the sunset clause, and the treatment of capital allowances, have further undermined the confidence of companies to invest in UK oil and gas production.

The data show that an environment in which the headline tax rate is increased to 78% and all EPL allowances are removed would lead to:

• A reduction in viable capital investment on the UKCS from £14.1 billion to £2.3 billion in the period 2025 to 2029.
• A reduction in the total economic value of the sector of £13 billion in the period 2025 to 2029.
• The loss of economic value directly impacts the UK supply chain companies and risks losing the capability and assets to other regions.
• Approximately 35,000 jobs are at risk over the period due to projects not going ahead.
• The sector’s total tax yield peaks in 2026 before declining compared to the current scenario, which continues to increase HMT receipts over the period.
• 63% of additional production that could be sanctioned under the current regime would be uneconomic. The UK would be more reliant on other countries to meet the UK energy demand at a cost to the UK economy and net-zero.
• The proposed regime cannot be likened to Norway which allows companies a maximum £78 of relief for £100 expenditure. Under this proposal, total relief would be £46.25.

The assessment concludes that most potential investment in the sector will be curtailed if all capital allowances are removed, resulting in a rapid cessation of investment and eventual loss of critical infrastructure.

David Whitehouse, OEUK chief executive officer, said: “The Prime Minister has said that the Budget will be painful. This industry recognises that difficult decisions will need to be made. This is a government that has made economic growth its main priority and yet our analysis shows that its policy will ultimately reduce this sector’s contribution to the UK economy.

“This paper shows that proposals to go further will trigger an accelerated decline of domestic production, and a corresponding reduction in taxes paid, jobs supported, and wider economic value generated.

“With an industrial strategy built in partnership with government, the UK can leverage the strengths of its offshore energy industry, put homegrown innovation and technology at the heart of its net zero ambitions, and ensure the UK is globally attractive for energy investment.

“For more than two years UK oil and gas operators have paid three times the rate of corporation tax of any other sector in the economy.

“Time is running out to mitigate damage that has already been done and to avoid further escalation. The Prime Minister promised to manage the North Sea in a manner that does not jeopardise jobs. We now need an honest conversation on how we can do this and need Government to work with the sector at pace.”