Brexit uncertainty driving business confidence fall, says ACCA

Nearly half of respondents (49 per cent) said they were feeling less confident than a year ago, with a fifth saying they are “‘much less confident”.

The results of the ACCA survey come as the findings of separate research carried out by The Fraser of Allander Institute at the University of Strathclyde showed that European Union trade routes are linked with 134,000 jobs in Scotland.

The Institute says the figure is based on £12.3bn in 2015 exports into other parts of the EU.

More jobs are already linked with exports to other parts of the world, which the UK government wants to boost post-Brexit through new trade deals.

Some 560,000 Scottish jobs - one in four - are either directly or indirectly supported by UK sales.

The report also suggests that some exporting sectors are significantly more important to the Scottish economy than they are to the UK as a whole.

The drinks sector, led by whisky, is second most important in EU sales, after oil and chemicals. However, it ranks number 19 to the UK.

Fish and shellfish exports are third most important by value for Scotland, but in the UK ranking of EU exports, fish are in 31st place.

Between 2016 and 2017, seafood sales to the EU were valued at £633m, or 78% of the industry’s total exports.

The Fraser of Allander findings come as the survey of ACCA members revealed business uncertainty caused by the Brexit process was the biggest driver cited by nearly a quarter of respondents, followed by concerns over single market access and loss of freedom of movement.

In contrast, less than 15 per cent reported improving confidence, and over a third (35 per cent) said there had been no impact. More than half (51 per cent) saw no opportunities for their organisation from Brexit.

The majority (70 per cent) of the 4,503 accountants surveyed came from ACCA members based in the UK.

Helen Brand OBE, chief executive of ACCA, said: “This loss of confidence across the UK is a cause for concern. Professional accountants are embedded in every sector and industry and their views represent an important snapshot from the front-line of the wider economic outlook.

“You can clearly see that uncertainty is the main driver. Uncertainty is no friend of business and 17 months on from the referendum the Government’s preferred direction of travel on Brexit remains unclear. The total cost in terms of investments delayed and decisions not taken is much harder to measure, but what we do know is that this uncertainty is affecting business decisions now.

“Government needs to recognise the value of offering clarity and assurance. The Budget tried to supply provisions for a ‘no deal’ Brexit. Yet what business really need is a clear plan for protecting current strengths and a plan for future growth in a new era of global trade.

“ACCA have long called for certainty over a transitional period post-2019 but as each month passes the value of any such period diminishes as businesses begin to put contingency plans into action.”