According to the independent analysis, commissioned by London Mayor Sadiq Khan and conducted by Cambridge Econometrics, Brexit has already cost the UK economy £140bn.

The study compared the current economic scenario with a model simulating the UK’s economy within the European Union. In 2023, under existing circumstances, the UK’s gross value added (GVA) stands at £2,207bn. However, without Brexit, the GVA would have been £2,347bn. The report suggests a 6% lower GVA in 2023 and a 10.1% decrease by 2035 due to Brexit.

Key findings highlight adverse impacts such as lower economic growth, reduced employment opportunities, a substantial decline in investment by 32%, and a 16% fall in imports by 2035. The study also predicts three million fewer jobs, a 5% decrease in exports, and a widening productivity gap between London and the rest of the UK.

Shyamoli Patel, principal economist at Cambridge Econometrics, stated: “Our study reveals that London’s economy would have grown faster if Brexit hadn’t taken place. Looking ahead, we project that Brexit will continue to have an impact on the UK and London economies in the medium term.”

Mayor Khan plans to leverage this report to advocate for closer ties with Europe, asserting that Brexit is not working and attributing the crisis to the perceived “hard-line Brexit.” He stresses the need for a mature approach and improved trading arrangements with European neighbours to address the escalating costs of the Brexit aftermath.