Stuart Agnew

Reduced restrictions and declining case numbers are providing upward momentum to the latest Recovery Index for Edinburgh. In the week to 31 May, the Index increased by 16.5% to reach 113.77 – the highest figure of 2021 so far. Despite the stronger Level 3 restrictions in Glasgow, and likely as a result of the bank holiday weekend and good weather, overall index growth sits only slightly lower at 104.8, up 9% on the previous week.

The Hotels & Leisure sector index has experienced a bounce from the recent ease in restrictions in particular. The Edinburgh index increased significantly over May and saw a jump over the bank holiday weekend, increasing from 65.1 on the 23 May to 122.9 on the 31 May. In Glasgow, it now reads 126.2 on the 31 May, a significant increase of 58% from the week before.

As the situation in Glasgow is monitored there is potential for this figure to further increase when Glasgow moves into Level 2 restrictions.

Commercial activity in Edinburgh and Glasgow has also continued to hold following the initial spike after restrictions were eased, as has retail and local housing markets.

The UK Cities Recovery Index is the only market activity index to reveal the inter-relationship between Covid mitigation policies, the public’s response to them and the recovery of our cities over time. It is compiled using a range of high frequency indicators across sectors, including commercial activity, hotels and leisure, mobility, residential, retail, and return to office. Sector Indices reaching 100 is equivalent to the pre-covid levels achieved on 29 February 2020.

Stuart Agnew, Avison Young Scotland principal & Edinburgh managing director, said: “What we’re seeing in both Edinburgh and Glasgow following the easing of restrictions is very positive. It’s great to see a bounce in the Hotels & Leisure sector in particular, with activity up significantly in both cities since last week. What’s even more promising for Glasgow is that this has the potential to improve even further when the city moves to Level 2 restrictions from Saturday.

“As we move into the summer months, we’re expecting to see an upward trajectory in the Mobility Sector Indices for Edinburgh and Glasgow as restrictions continue to ease and the weather hopefully improves. As the vaccine rollout continues, we are also anticipating an uptick in the Return to Office Indices in the coming weeks and months. Both cities are now on a promising route to recovery.”