ASPC, in cooperation with the University of Aberdeen, Business School, Centre for Real Estate Research, has published statistics for the first quarter of 2021 relating to the Aberdeen housing market.

• The quarterly house price change in Aberdeen City and Suburbs is – 0.4%
• The annual house price change in Aberdeen City and suburbs is 5.4%
• The annualised house price change over 5 years in Aberdeen City and suburbs is – 3.4%

John MacRae, chairman of the board of directors of ASPC said: “The report released by the Centre for Real Estate Research at the University of Aberdeen Business School, for the first quarter of the year brings encouraging news.

“This year, we have a strong positive indicator on prices, the first in several years. The first quarter figures are always of interest because, by the end of March, we generally have a good indication how the market is likely to be during the year.

“The last quarter of 2020 had seen unusually good activity in our local housing market, leading to positive movements across 2 out of 3 categories. This was very welcome, given the year that we had endured. I recall endeavouring to dampen expectations for 2021. I was concerned not to raise hopes. It is invigorating, therefore, to see that results for the first quarter of this year continue to show improvement in our local housing market, albeit not yet of a comprehensive nature. Nevertheless, the first quarter results reinforce the anecdotal evidence of practitioners that we may be experiencing a recovery in our market.”

He added: “Compared to prices 5 years ago, our market remains down by 3.4%. Compared to the last quarter of 2020, it is down 0.4%. Compared to the same time last year our market has risen 5.4%. These figures require some context to help explain what I think is happening.

“Last year was ‘unusual’. After a mildly encouraging start the local market was stopped in its tracks by lockdown, only to recover, strongly, later in the year. Understanding just how busy the market was, last autumn, allows the first quarter’s result of -0.4 per cent to be seen in context, as essentially stable.

“Additionally, five years ago, the first quarter’s report for 2016, indicated the annual house price change was -4.9%. The current change is +5.4%Given the mediocre performance of our local market since 2014, this is a very hopeful sign.”

Mr MacRae concluded: “Finally, the annualised change (over 5 years) stands at -3.4%. What all this means, I think, is this. Despite a severe knockback to activity, last year, we saw evidence of increasing confidence, and increased activity, after lockdown was lifted. The activity was not of ‘boom time’ proportions but was welcome. The first quarter of this year appears to be continuing at similar levels of activity and is also having an upward effect on price.

“Do bear in mind that we are in a recovery situation, prices are still, in the main, below the levels of 2014, but there are grounds for optimism that the recovery will continue.”