Some New Year cheer as growth returns to Scottish retail sales

Some New Year cheer as growth returns to Scottish retail sales

January saw Scottish sales increase by 2.0 per cent on a like-for-like basis compared to January 2018, when they had decreased by 0.7 per cent, above the three-month average of -0.5 per cent.

Last month also saw total sales in Scotland increase by 2.2 per cent compared with January 2018, when they had decreased by 0.1 per cent.

This is the highest since June and above the three-month average of -0.2 per cent and pulls the twelve-month average to 0.5 per cent. Adjusted for inflation measured at 0.4 per cent by the BRC-Nielsen Shop Price Index (SPI), January sales increased 1.9 per cent.

Total Food sales in January increased 4.9 per cent versus January 2018, when they had increased by 4.2 per cent.



This is the highest since July and above both the 3-month and the 12-month averages of 2.9 per cent and 3.6 per cent respectively. The 3-month and 12-month averages are above the UK’s levels of 2.4 per cent and 3.0 per cent respectively.

Total Non-Food sales increased 0.2 per cent in January compared to January 2018, when they had decreased by 3.6 per cent. This is the highest since June and above both the 3-month and 12-month averages of -2.6 per cent and -2.0 per cent respectively.

Adjusted for the estimated effect of Online sales, Total Non-Food sales increased by 1.9 per cent in January versus January 2018, when they had decreased by 2.5 per cent. On a three-month basis, the Online-adjusted Total Non-Food sales decreased by 1.1 per cent, below the UK Non-Food average of -0.4 per cent.

David Lonsdale, director | Scottish Retail Consortium, said: “January saw a welcome return to retail sales growth after what had been an underwhelming end to 2018, and despite a dip in shopper footfall during the month. Real-terms sales grew by 1.9 per cent, driven by a more broadly-based pick up including a strong performance in food and drink, but also the first modest growth in the non-food category in six months. These figures are slightly distorted by the inclusion of Hogmanay during the reporting period, so it’s too early to say with confidence that retail sales have turned the corner.

“Grocery sales did well, helped by New Year and Burns Night celebrations, both of which encouraged shoppers to stock up on Scottish favourites including steak pies and haggis. Non-food retailers saw good performance in homeware and furniture, with consumers looking to freshen up their homes. Health related items also did well, with skincare products to combat the cold weather and vitamins and diet goods supplementing consumer’s New Year health ambitions.

“Nonetheless, it’s important to note a good January doesn’t offset a disappointing November and December which are the crucial trading months. Consumers continue to be careful with their spending at a time when political and economic uncertainty dominate the headlines, and with council tax and other cost of living rises in the pipeline. Policymakers should keep household spending pressures upmost in their minds over the next few months as a result.”

Paul Martin, UK head of retail | KPMG, said: “Following a dreary December for retailers, January brought a glimmer of hope, with total sales increasing 2.2 per cent in Scotland – the highest increase since June.

“Shoppers took full advantage of winter discounts, which boosted sales, but these figures are also a reminder that consumers are prepared to wait for heavy discounts before purchasing, putting further pressure on retailers.

“Food sales performed well once again, increasing 4.9 per cent compared to January last year. The culinary highlight for the month was Burns Night, with haggis and other celebratory produce flying off the shelves.

“The festive period is now well and truly a distant memory and retailers will be doing all they can to adapt and remain agile in this rapidly evolving market.”

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